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Korean Economic and Industrial Outlook for 2019

Author Economic Outlook and Analysis Division Date 2019.02.28 Series
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The real economy in South Korea displayed unmistakable signs of sluggishness, with export growth stalling and domestic consumption and investment taking a downward turn. In 2019, the global economy is expected to exhibit limited growth at best, due to a protracted economic slowdown in developed countries and stagnating growth rates in developing countries, all compounded by external downside risk factors. While the global economic slowdown causes the demand for crude oil to decline further and the continued appreciation of the U.S. dollar threatens to depress international oil prices, the continuing efforts of the member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to decrease oil output amid growing geopolitical instability are likely to counter those forces putting downward pressure on oil, keeping the annual average more or less the same. The U.S. dollar is expected to remain strong during the first half of 2019, but the transition of European and other countries to contractionary monetary policies and the influences of the slowdown of the United States’ economy are projected to keep the appreciation of the dollar in check.