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Derivation of Future Promising Industries from the Standpoint of Demand and their Marketization and Industrialization

Author Gwang-hun Choe, Yun-hui Choe, U-jung Sim, Seung-min Kim Date 2016.02.01 Page 25
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Various external, cyclical, and demographic factors have been implicated in the low growth recently affecting the South Korean economy, but one of the chief factors is the industrial issues of the current growth model and its limitations. As a developing economy, the country achieved success through a “fast follower” rather than a “first mover” strategy, and through an input-driven model of
growth. Such growth, however, has been eroded by stagnation in high-tech areas due to a lack of benchmarks, as well as the challenges posed by late starters.
Accordingly, continued growth in the South Korean economy necessitates the adoption of a different growth model, a proactive effort to uncover promising future industries, and the development of pioneering industrialization.
At the same time, rapid industrial changes have also occurred, reflecting swift changes in social and economic conditions toward a future society. In policy terms, there is a growing demand for a fast discovery of and response to promise future technologies and industries.
Most studies aimed at predicting this future and uncovering its most promising industries, however, have focused on suppliers and technological development, while their connection to industries that are actually being newly marketized has been lacking.
The absence of a demand perspective in economic, commercial, or humanities terms has led to prediction errors, which ultimately
result in erroneous industrial policy and increase the risk of societal losses.
With this in mind, this study is concerned with developing a research methodology for predicting and identifying promising future industries from a demand perspective as well as inferring their policy adjustments to encourage demand for such future industries.