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2016 Outlook for the 12 key industries

Author Leading Industry Research Division Date 2015.11.27 Issue No 623

Despite the impact from the low growth trend in China and weak unit prices, exports of key industries in 2016 are expected to show a slight increase propelled by economic recovery in advanced economies, increasing number of new products launched and increased demands due to Olympics (- 9.4% → 0.4%)
● On the other hand, heightened competition among key industries in Korea and China, prolonged weak yen and low oil prices, sustained expansion of overseas production, restructuring of industrial structures and the effectuation of the Korea China Free Trade Agreement are expected to act as variables


Thanks to the robust electronics industry and the eased sluggishness of the materials industry, exports of the IT manufacturing sector and non-IT manufacturing sector are expected to increase again, recording 0.7% and 0.3% respectively but the amount is expected to be slight
● Exports in 2016 may be 'low first half and high second half,' so it is anticipated that exports would be out of decline in the second half
● Thanks to a demand increase by the Brazil Olympics, exports of electronics would increase by 6.3% and those of oil refining and petrochemical sectors would improve from this year, which was characterized by a steep decrease due to falling oil prices
● Meanwhile, exports of semiconductors and shipbuilding industries whose export volumes are large are expected to decline and exports of key industries will be sluggish due to cyclical factors and structural factors acting in combination


There are possibilities that exports would continue to be weak in 2016
● Slowing demands in the world market contribute to problems but the main issues include an increased supply capacity globally, deepened competition with latecomers such as China and expanded overseas production
Productions are expected to increase marginally due to low export growth and expanded overseas productions of semiconductors and displays along with home appliances, smartphones and textiles