The Macroeconomic Prospect for the Second Half of 2013
|Author||Economic Analysis and Forecasting Division||Date||2013.06.28||Issue No||559|
○ The domestic economy is expected to record the annualized growth rate of 2.7% as the economic recovery would be accelerated in the second half, thanks to the improvement in the terms of trade resulting from the recovery in export and the stabilized oil price which were caused by the alleviate global economic slowdown, and also due to the effect of the economic stimulus package.
- It is prospected that the growth rate would exhibit the relatively obvious trend of being low in the beginning but higher later as the pace of recovery accelerates in the second half, along with the amplified base effect of the growth pattern in the previous year.
- External factors would be the progress of the Euro Zone crisis, the risk of the tightening measures by the U.S and the trend of exchange rate while internal factor would be household indebtedness, and the down side risk is prospected to be dominant as a whole.
○ Private consumption is expected to record more than 2.4% in the second half and the annualized rate of more or less than 2.5%t hanks to the rise in export, the improvement in the terms of trade resulting from the decline in oil price.
○ Plant and equipment investment which would be led mainly by machinery, communication equipments and display industries, would maintain relatively solid growth in the second half, and the construction investment is prospected to be back on the increase due to the expanded investment on public infrastructure.
○ Export is prospected to record the annualized growth rate of 3.8%as its increase accelerates in the second half due to the moderate recovery of the global economy, the eased decline in export price, the restoration of the shipbuilding export and the base effect.
- As the import would exhibit less than 3.4% rise which is lower than the export because of the low domestic economic growth and the decline in oil price, the trade surplus is expected to more sharply increase than in the previous year.