Prospect for the Bilateral Trade Between Korea and Iran Since the Launch of New Iranian Government
|Author||Bhing Hyun Ji||Date||2013.07.16||Issue No||562|
○ As the11th president of Iran, Hassan Rouhani who takes relatively moderate stance on diplomacy and nuclear issue, was elected, raising the expectation that the new Iranian government would be engaged in the improvement of the relationship with international community.
○ Since the launch of the Rouhani administration, the external policy stance of Iran is expected to become flexible. However, it is prospected to take a longer time for the sanction on Iran to be eased.
- Iranian nuclear program is the issue requiring the adjustment of opinions with the supreme leader, Ali Hosseini Khamenei and the conservatives, and there is a slim chance that the U.S would lift the sanction on Iran in a short period of time.
- However, given the economic situation in Iran and its national consensus, it is more plausible that the new Iranian government would try to improve external relationship in a long-term.
○ The bilateral trade between Korea and Iran would undergo difficult times due to the effect of the sanction on Iran imposed by international community. However, it is required of the long-term countermeasures in preparation for the situation the sanction would be eased.
- As the measure to reinforce the sanction on Iran has been implemented since this July, in accordance with the amended National Defense Authorization Act, both the import and the export would decline for the moment.
- The export to Iran would face difficulties due to the decline in maritime transportation, the increase in the numbers of the products included in the sanctioned items and the decrease in foreign exchange earnings of Iran.
- However, as it is highly likely that Iran would emerge as the largest market in the Middle East, it is necessary to maintain the relationship with Iran in preparation for the circumstance that the sanction would be alleviated.
- In the long-term, the sectors such as automobile and automobile parts, small and medium sized manufacturing facilities, oil refining and petrochemical plant, medical equipment and high-efficiency electronic equipments are promising.