Industrial Outlook for the Second Half of 2014
|Author||Growth Engine Industry Research Division||Date||2014.06.24||Issue No||593|
In the second half, the export of 10 leading industries is expected to expand more than in the first half thanks to the economic recovery of advanced countries although the effect of strong won and the possibility of slowdown in emerging economies seem to acts as variables.
● Export is prospected to grow in the beginning but decline later by rising 5.9% compared to the previous year as it would be led by non-IT manufacturing industry(6.6%) and supported by IT manufacturing industry(4.8%)
● Shipbuilding and steel industries which got out of recession in the first half, are anticipated to maintain a solid growth momentum and contribute to the increase in the export of entire leading industries.
Production is expected to be slowed down due to the slump in the domestic demand for display (-7.1%), electronic home appliance (-3%) and shipbuilding industries(-1.7%) despite the expansion of export.
Domestic demand is prospected to be sluggish owing to the decline in the electronic home appliance and shipbuilding although information and telecommunication devices, display and general machinery would record a relatively high growth rate.
Import is anticipated to grow 6.1% compared to the previous year as shipbuilding (device and equipment), information and communication devices( parts) and displays rise above 10% thanks to the increase in export and strong won.
Although It is concerning that the profitability of enterprises would worsen due to the continued decline in won/dollar exchange rate, the effect of decline on the export of 10 leading industries would be lessened more than in the past.
● Among the 10 leading industries, electronic home appliance, textile and steel industries would be negatively affected by the deteriorated export price competitiveness resulting from the decrease in exchange rate.
Which direction the export price would be headed in the second half, is prospected to also be a variable for the expansion of major leading industries.