2015 Industrial Outlook
|Author||New Growth Industry Research Division, Leading Industry Research Division||Date||2014.11.27||Issue No||603|
In 2015, 12 leading industries would grow 3.4% which is a little higher than 3.2% in 2014, owing to the recovery of advanced economies like the U.S. and the rise in demand for parts. IT manufacturing industry is prospected to maintain higher growth rate (4.5%) than non-IT manufacturing sectors(2.3) including foods and beverages and oil, and exhibit low growth in the beginning but higher growth later.
● Shipbuilding and semiconductor whose size and share of export is high, is expected to record positive growth, reaching around 7%, which would contribute to export increase of the entire leading industries
● Export of all sectors with a exception of oil industry, is expected to grow although the growth would be minimal while display industry would turn a surplus, getting out of the downward trend that had been persisting for a while. .
The overall growth of production would be low due to the low export increase, slowdown of domestic demand and the expanded overseas production of major industries(IT manufacturing, automotive, textile).
In 2015, the followings are expected to act as factors: whether low yen and strong won would persist, intensifying competition between Korea and China in the major industries, continuously growing overseas production and the effectuation of Korea-China FTA.
Some of the small-sized follower industries (heavy electrical equipment, plastic product, secondary cell and so on) would witness high export growth, complementing the decline of the existing 12 industries’ export.
Meanwhile, once the low yen trend persists, negative effect the extent of competition between Korea and Japan has on the export of oil, would be relatively great, and to some extent, even automotive, textile, electric home appliance, shipbuilding and food and beverage industries would be affected by the trend .
As the competition between Korea and China in the leading industries, becomes more fierce, most of the leading industries(with the exceptions of steel, semiconductor and automotive industries) is prospected to witness that their export to China would be negatively affected by the competition.