Outlook for major industries in the latter half of 2015
|Author||Leading Industry Research Division||Date||2015.06.24||Issue No||617|
The top 12 major industries in the latter half of 2015 are expected to be weak due to slow growth in emerging countries and low unit prices resulting from low oil prices. However, exports are expected to recover compared to the first half (-7.6%) as they recorded a decrease of 3.2%, thanks to economic recovery in advanced economies and stable oil prices, and production and domestic demand are likely to be similar to the same period in the previous year.
In terms of exports in the second half, the extent of the decrease in exports would be reduced compared to that of the first half, as exports in the IT sector are expected to improve slightly (2.5%) as well as exports in the non IT sector(from -10.9% to 5.8%), which had experienced a significant drop.
When looking into each sector, the shipbuilding and semiconductor industries are expected to have increases of more than 5% in exports and production continuously in the second half, thus performing relatively well, but the material industry is projected to be weak.
● The extent of the decrease in exports of the refinery and petrochemical industries, which experienced a sharp contraction owing to the influence of low oil prices after the fourth quarter last year, is expected to be reduced as the pace of decreasing oil prices slows down.
● Meanwhile, latecomer industries other than the 12 key industries such as medical, heavy electric equipment and cosmetics are projected to go up in the second half, making up for sluggish exports in the major industries.
The main influencing factors include deepening competition between key industries in Korea and China, possibility of the weak yen and euro, effectuation of the Korea-China FTA, expanded overseas production and sluggish consumption due to MERS.
● The main influencing factors of export recovery include prospects of export unit values in major industries, which are on the decrease due to low oil prices, oversupply, and deepening competition in the second half.
Production is expected to grow compared to the first half, but the growth is expected to be low because of overall poor export performance and expansion of overseas production in IT manufacturing, automobile and textile industries.