Korean Economic and Industrial Outlook for the Second Half of 2019
|Author||Economic Outlook and Analysis Division||Date||2019.08.30||Series|
The real economy in South Korea is displaying unmistakable signs of sluggishness, as exports continue to decline and domestic consumption remains slack. In 2019, the global economy is expected to grow at a slower rate than the previous year due to the continued economic slowdown in developed countries and diminished growth in developing countries, and growth momentum is not expected to be strong in the second half of the year. While the international price of oil is influenced by geopolitical issues, the international oil price is projected to remain at around USD 66 per barrel on average this year as the trade conflict between the United States and China and the slowdown of the global economy are expected to counter forces putting upward pressure on oil prices, including decreased oil output by member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The Korean won (KRW) to U.S. dollar (USD) exchange rate is expected to remain on an overall upward trend due to a shrinking trade surplus, but its increase will be limited, resulting in an annual average KRW-USD exchange rate of KRW 1,152.